UK flu activity above recent years but still low, early season possible
UKHSA reports flu circulating at baseline but higher than the same period in the past four seasons, with young adults driving increases.
The story in focus
UK Health Security Agency surveillance for week 40 shows flu activity at baseline levels but higher than the same period in the previous four winters. Positivity rose to 6.5% from 5%, and hospitalisations were 1.97 per 100,000. Young adults are driving the increase, and officials see possible signs of an early season.
- Flu positivity rose to 6.5% in week 40 from 5% the previous week, with hospitalisations at 1.97 per 100,000.
- Flu activity throughout September was higher than in the same period during all past four winter seasons.
- Increases are being driven by young adults, and UKHSA says there are possible signs of an early flu season.
Surveillance signals
The UK Health Security Agency's first weekly winter respiratory virus report for the 2026-27 season, covering 28 September to 4 October, shows influenza circulating at baseline levels, described as very low. However, activity has risen since August and was higher throughout September than in the same period during each of the past four winters.
Flu positivity increased to 6.5% from 5% the previous week. Hospitalisations stood at 1.97 per 100,000; because formal surveillance starts in week 40, no week-on-week comparison was possible. The agency said young adults are driving the increases.
Vaccine and virus context
UKHSA said a WHO technical report indicates that a recently detected A(H1N1) virus has drifted from the component used in this year's vaccine. It is too early to say whether this drifted strain will circulate widely or how effective the vaccine will be against it. The vaccine includes components against H1N1, H3N2 and influenza B, and officials noted that vaccines typically remain effective at preventing severe illness even when drifted strains appear.
Modelling cited by the agency estimated that last winter's vaccination programme in England prevented around 100,000 hospital admissions and 7,000 deaths. Eligible people can book free vaccination through the NHS App, online, or via a GP practice or local pharmacy.
Other respiratory viruses
COVID-19 activity increased but remained low, with positivity at 9.1% compared with 7.9% the previous week and hospitalisations at 2.04 per 100,000, up from 1.75. Intensive care admissions stayed low at 0.06 per 100,000. Rhinovirus activity began to decline after a sharp rise, and respiratory syncytial virus remained at baseline with very low circulation.
What do the latest UK figures show about flu and COVID-19?
Flu is at baseline but higher than the same period in the past four seasons, with positivity at 6.5% and hospitalisations at 1.97 per 100,000. COVID-19 positivity rose to 9.1% and hospitalisations to 2.04 per 100,000, both still low.
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